Showing posts with label Premier League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Premier League. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Is Football's Gravy Train Slowing Down?


Last month Deloitte published the latest edition of the Football Money League, their annual ranking of European clubs by revenue. Once again, the Premier League featured prominently with seven English clubs listed in the top 20, though the two highest earning clubs were still the Spanish giants, Real Madrid and Barcelona. On the face of it, this was yet another demonstration of the Premier League’s ability to generate revenue, while defying the effects of the economic recession.

Once again, Manchester United were the highest ranked English club in third position, while Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all retained their positions in the top ten, though Manchester City were the biggest movers, rising nine places to 11th, one position better than Tottenham. Aston Villa were a new entry to the Money League in 20th position.

Moreover, the combined revenue of the clubs in the Premier League of around £2 billion is still miles higher than all other football leagues (Bundesliga £1.4 billion, La Liga and Serie A both £1.3 billion), though it should be pointed out that the German league is actually more profitable. On top of that, Deloitte forecast that revenue for the 2010/11 season will rise once again to £2.2 billion, thanks to the new television contract and some higher sponsorship deals.

In short, everything would appear to be rosy in the Premier League’s garden, at least from a revenue perspective. However, there have been a few indications recently that all might not be well with the Premier League’s business model with revenue growth slowing down at most clubs. Even Arsenal, who have been portrayed by UEFA as a shining example of a well-run football club, reported a 3% decline in their revenue for the first six months of 2010/11.

The signs were already there in the cycle of 2009/10 results. Revenue was flat at clubs like Everton and Sunderland, while the leading clubs have by and large also been suffering. In fact, we can reasonably take the financials of what can now be referred to as the “Sky Six” (Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham) as a decent proxy for the Premier League, as they account for almost 60% of the league’s total revenue.

In 2009/10, the revenue for these six clubs grew by 5%, which looks fairly impressive, but there are a few aspects that should be stressed. First, more than two-thirds of the £56 million increase came from just one club, Manchester City, who were boosted by a series of “friendly” commercial deals from the Middle East, while there was virtually no growth from the traditional “Big Four” clubs. Second, although revenue has risen by 77% (about £500 million) since 2004, very little of that growth has come in the last three years. This highlights the importance of the three-year TV deal with Sky, which once again climbed in 2008. Since that date, the annual percentage increase in revenue has fallen away from around 20% to 5%.

For the Premier League, there’s no doubt that television has been the gift that keeps on giving, significantly boosting all clubs’ revenue since the self-proclaimed best league in the world first held hands with Rupert Murdoch’s minions. This has almost certainly given most clubs an inflated sense of their commercial acumen, as they have conveniently forgotten the old economics proverb about a rising tide lifting all boats. Looking at how the revenue of the top six clubs has changed over the past few years, it is striking how similar their growth has been since 2004 with only a couple of exceptional events, like Arsenal moving to the Emirates Stadium or Manchester City’s new-found ability to secure marketing deals, altering the landscape.

In fact, television is now the biggest element of revenue at Premier League clubs, contributing almost half of their turnover, though the proportion is a bit lower for the top six clubs at 40%. This is much needed when you consider that match day revenue growth has effectively come to a standstill, in fact decreasing 5% in 2009/10, while commercial income barely grew at all (3%), if you exclude Manchester City. There are legitimate question marks over whether the Premier League’s growth engine will continue to motor ahead or whether it has stalled.

In order to understand what is going on, we need to explore each of the three main revenue streams at football clubs in detail: (1) Match day revenue - largely derived from gate receipts (including season tickets and memberships); (2) Broadcast revenue – largely from the Premier League and Champions League, but also including Cup competitions; (3) Commercial revenue – mainly sponsorships and merchandising.

1. Match day

Match day revenue is traditionally the most important source of revenue for football clubs, and that remains the case for our six clubs, even though it has been surpassed by broadcasting revenue. In fact, relatively high ticket prices, allied with a lot of corporate hospitality, mean that five of the top nine places in the Money League for match day revenue belong to English clubs with both Manchester United and Arsenal generating around £100 million a season.

That said, match day revenue actually declined at four of our six clubs last year (10% at Chelsea, 8% at Manchester United, 7% at Tottenham and 6% at Arsenal), while it was flat at Liverpool. This is nothing new under the sun with match day revenue hardly growing at all since 2007.

There are really only five ways to grow match day revenue: (a) raise ticket prices; (b) stage more matches; (c) increase the number of fans; (d) have a better mix of spectators (in terms of revenue generation, if not passion); (e) build a new, larger stadium. Let’s take a look at each of these factors in turn.

(a) Ticket prices. It’s difficult to see how English clubs can greatly increase ticket prices, as they are already among the highest in Europe. Even Manchester United announced a freeze in their season ticket prices this year, after the Glazers had increased prices by an average of 10% a season since their unwelcome arrival. Chelsea did raised their ticket prices at the beginning of this season, but this followed four consecutive seasons of freezing prices and was the first increase since July 2005.

"If you build it, they will come"

In a blaze of publicity, the rise in VAT also lead to the first £100 “ordinary” ticket in English football at Arsenal, and though cheaper options are available, prices are considerably higher here than, say, the £10 a head paid by most Borussia Dortmund fans.

The conclusion has to be that there is some scope for raising ticket prices, but not much. As former culture secretary Andy Burnham said, “We have seen fans priced out of going to football”, and resistance is growing towards higher prices. Last week, the Arsenal Supporters Trust warned the club that it should not attempt to cover the cost of wage increases via season ticket price increases.

(b) Number of matches. Match day revenue obviously depends on the number of games played at home, so extended runs in the cup competitions can provide a significant boost to revenue, even if the TV and prize money is inconsequential. The other side of the coin is that fewer home games can lead to a reduction in revenue, which is exactly what happened to four of our clubs. Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham all played fewer home ties in the domestic cups, while Chelsea were hurt by an earlier Champions League exit. Arsenal were particularly impacted as they had an incredible five fewer home matches in 2009/10 (27 compared to 32 the previous season).

(c) Number of spectators. The other aspect of volume in the economists’ price-volume equation is the number of bums on seats (“no standing, please”). Average attendances fell slightly at five of our six clubs last season, the one exception being Manchester City, whose crowds rose by over 6%. In fact, crowd levels have been remarkably resilient in this difficult recessionary climate with all of our clubs filling at least 95% of their stadium capacity. That’s a notable demonstration of support, underlined by the fact that average crowds so far in the 2010/11 season have actually marginally increased at five clubs with only Liverpool falling (the Hodgson factor?). The average attendance at Manchester United has held up, even though season ticket renewals fell 5%. Of course, the corollary of this positive news is that there is hardly any room for growth.

(d) Spectator mix. Although the “prawn sandwich brigade” is roundly derided by the majority of fans, there’s little doubt that they allow football clubs to get more bang for their buck. Perhaps the best example here is Arsenal, whose move to the Emirates brought them far more premium priced seats and notably expanded corporate hospitality facilities. In fact, Arsenal make 35% of their match day revenue from just 9,000 premium seats at the Emirates. Clearly, you don’t want too many bankers and other corporate types killing the atmosphere at the ground, but an effective balance can be struck.

(e) New stadium. Arsenal’s move to the Emirates more than doubled their match day revenue in 2006/07 from £44 million to £91 million, moving them four places up the main Money League from ninth to fifth. Sometimes, it is possible to expand the capacity of the current stadium, as Manchester United did in 2006/07, when they completed the upper quadrants at Old Trafford. However, the big money growth, especially for those clubs with smaller grounds, comes with a move to a larger, more modern stadium, which is why so many have been looking at such a possibility. However, as we have seen, there are many hurdles to overcome before successfully completing such a project.

Tottenham’s hopes of moving to the Olympic Stadium appear to have been thwarted, while Hicks and Gillett’s famous spade never quite reached the ground at Stanley Park in Liverpool. Similarly, Chelsea have struggled to find a suitable location in West London, though the Earls Court Exhibition Centre may once again be on the agenda. Manchester City’s match day income has been restricted by the deal they signed with the local council, though a new agreement means that they would get more benefit if they were to expand the capacity at the City of Manchester Stadium.

All of these factors produce vastly different match day revenues per match with Manchester United and Arsenal really coining it at around £3.5 million, while Tottenham and Manchester City earn considerably less at £1.5 million and £1 million respectively. Interestingly, Chelsea generate far more revenue (£2.4 million) than Liverpool (£1.6 million), even though their ground capacity is nearly 4,000 lower. If you ever wanted to understand why clubs are exploring other options, there’s the reason right there.

2. Television

However, in the modern world, it’s television that drives revenue growth. Its impact can be clearly seen by looking at the 45% uplift in 2008, which coincided with the introduction of the new three-year TV deal. Last season, it was the same old story with broadcasting income rising an average of just under 10% at our six clubs, increasing its share of total revenue to 40%. In fact, it’s even more important lower down the Premier League, where TV can account for a staggering 70% or more of revenue at clubs like Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan.

The Premier League can be criticised for many things, but their ability to market the “product” is beyond censure. The growth in payments secured for the TV rights has been nothing short of astonishing from the initial £253 million 5-year deal in 1992 to the £3.4 billion payment that commenced this season. To make that spectacular progress even clearer: the original deal was worth £50 million a season, while the latest brings in more than £1.1 billion.

This makes sense if you consider that audiences for live football have continued to hold up, while viewing figures have declined across the remainder of the schedule. This is premium content for pay-TV stations, whose business model relies on selling lots of subscriptions to sports channels.

Great news for football clubs, but closer examination of the new rights deals reveals an interesting (and potentially worrying) trend. Revenue for the sale of domestic TV rights (live matches and highlights) hardly grew at all in the new contract, implying that the home market may have reached saturation point. Instead, it is overseas fans that have been behind the explosive growth with the revenue doubling each time the rights are re-negotiated: 2001-04 £178 million, 2004-07 £325 million, 2007-10 £625 million and 2010-13 £1.4 billion.

Some of the increases seem barely credible: the Abu Dhabi Sports Channel paid over £200 million for the Middle East and North Africa (almost three times the £80 million paid by previous incumbent Showtime Arabia); in Singapore, an island with a population of less than 5 million people, SingTel paid £200 million to secure the rights from its rival StarHub; similarly, in Hong Kong i-Cable paid nearly £150 million, much more than the £115 million Now TV paid last time around.

As Steve McMahon, the former Liverpool player turned executive at the Singapore-based Profitable Group, said, “It is a global game. The television figures when Liverpool or Manchester United play are 600 or 700 million.” To support his assertion, the Premier League is now beamed into 575 million homes in more than 200 countries around the world.

"The future? No, very much the past"

In fact, the extraordinary globalisation of the Premier League could make English football the first world sport to earn more money from supporters abroad than at home. Foreign rights already account for 44% of the total and it would be no surprise if they overtook domestic rights in the future. Chief executive Richard Scudamore boasted, “By focusing on the quality of the game, their players and their grounds, the clubs have produced a competition that people want to watch – both at matches and at home.”

However, he who pays the piper calls the tune and there are a couple of downsides to this overseas expansion. First, it makes it more likely that kick-off times will be changed to suit fans abroad, so we can expect more lunchtime matches that can be screened during the evening peak viewing time in Asia. Second, it becomes imperative to continually promote the Premier League brand abroad, hence the unpopular proposal to play a 39th game abroad (in the same way that the NFL and NBA have marketed their product by staging matches in London) on top of the customary exhausting pre-season tours.

The other concern has to be that in the same way that revenue from the sale of domestic rights appears to have reached a plateau, this might now also be the case for foreign rights. Certainly, it would be surprising if the next deal were to double in value once again.

"Coming on tour near you soon"

Having said that, it should be acknowledged that the Premier League TV deal is still the best around, compared to other European leagues. At £1.1 billion a season, it is higher than Serie A £760 million, Ligue Un £560 million, La Liga £500 million and the Bundesliga £340 million. The difference is largely due to those foreign rights, e.g. the Premier League earns £480 million a season, while La Liga only receives £130 million and the Bundesliga a paltry £35 million.

This does not necessarily provide such a big competitive advantage to the leading English clubs, as the distribution is more equitable in the Premier League, meaning that the major Spanish and Italian clubs earned more broadcasting revenue last year. From this season, this may well change in Italy, as they have now moved to a collective agreement, leaving Spain as the only important European league where rights are sold on an individual basis.

The Premier League make great play of the fact that their distribution formula is the most equitable of all Europe’s major football leagues, citing the ratio between bottom and top clubs of just 1 to 1.7, which is considerably lower than La Liga’s 1 to 12. In 2009/10, Manchester United received the most money from the Premier League with £53 million, while bottom club Portsmouth received a very respectable £32 million. However, in La Liga, both Barcelona and Real Madrid received £117 million, while the bottom club only got £10 million. Actually, in Spain the drop starts almost immediately with third placed Valencia only receiving £35 million.

That said, there are ways in which the Premier League distribution model does favour the leading clubs. It’s true that half of the domestic money and all of the overseas rights are split evenly among the 20 clubs, but 50% of the domestic rights is not. For these funds, 25% is for merit payments, determined by the club’s final league position, and 25% is paid in facility fees, based on how often a club is shown live on television.

Each place in the league is worth an additional £800,000, which can make quite a difference, so Chelsea took the maximum £16 million last year, while Portsmouth only received £800,000. Similarly, each club is guaranteed a minimum of ten TV appearances with a maximum of 24. It’s no surprise to see that the leading clubs feature much more often than those lower down the league, so Manchester United’s £13 million facility fee was more than twice that of Hull City (£6.3 million).

Fair enough, you might think, given that more people are likely to tune in to, say, Arsenal against Spurs than Birmingham City against Blackburn Rovers. However, that does rather beg the question of whether clubs with a global fan base like Manchester United and Liverpool might start agitating for a higher share of the growing overseas rights on the same principle.

There’s certainly little difference between the leading clubs in terms of Premier League distributions at the moment with the range between first and fifth place being only £3 million (£53 million to £50 million). This only emphasises the importance of reaching the Champions League to these clubs with the four qualifiers last season benefiting by an average of £29 million each, excluding gate receipts and additional payments from sponsors.

The distributions are a mixture of participation fees (€7.1 million) and performance bonuses (in the group stage, €800,000 for each victory plus €400,000 for each draw). There are additional payments made to teams that progress further in the competition with €3 million the reward for advancing to the round of 16, €3.3 million for reaching the quarter-finals and €4.2 million for a semi-final place. The winners of the final collect a further €9 million, with €5.6 million going to the runners-up. Distributions are based in Euros, so the weakening of Sterling over the last few years has further increased the value to English clubs.

In addition, clubs receive a share of the television money from the so-called market pool. This is a variable amount, which is allocated depending on a number of factors: (a) the size/value of a country’s TV market, so the amount allocated to teams in England is more than that given to, say, Spain, as English television generates more revenue; (b) the number of representatives from a country, so an English team (with four representatives) might receive less than a German team (with only three representatives); (c) the position of a club in its domestic championship in the previous season, so if two teams from England both reach the quarter-final, the one that finished ahead of the other in the Premier League would get more money; (d) the number of matches played in the current season’s Champions League.

The size of the Champions League revenue pool has been steadily increasing, but once again the growth rate has been slowing down. Nevertheless, there is still an enormous difference between the Champions League and Europa League in terms of payments. Last season, Fulham’s valiant run to the final of the Europa League only earned them £8 million, which is £16 million lower than the smallest payment received by an English representative in the Champions League. Therefore, Liverpool’s failure to qualify for Europe’s premier competition will have a big negative impact on their finances, while Tottenham’s will receive a hefty shot in the arm.

As with any other business, however, there are threats to the Premier League’s dominance of the football television market, starting with the courts of law.

A recent non-binding opinion from an advocate at the European Court of Justice in a case brought by a Portsmouth pub landlady stated that broadcasters cannot prevent customers using cheaper foreign satellite television services to watch Premier League football. This brings into question the current model whereby the Premier League licenses its content on a country-by-country basis, which has allowed the league to fully maximise the value of its rights.

If this opinion is confirmed by a court ruling, the implication is that in the future the Premier League would have to sell the rights in one bundle to the European Union, theoretically reducing the revenue received, at least according to Omar Sheikh of Credit Suisse, “Ultimately the value of the rights will probably go down, because there are only two likely bidders on a pan-European basis.” On the other hand, a relatively low proportion of overseas income currently comes from Europe and the Premier League has to date proved very adroit at finding ways to get the most out of its TV rights.

There are other regulatory challenges to the current model. Media watchdog Ofcom has already ordered Sky to give rival broadcasters cheaper access to its exclusive rights, maybe by up to a third, which may in turn lead to Sky paying lower prices for those rights, though the Premier League (apparently linked by an umbilical cord to Sky) has decided to take legal action in an attempt to overturn the decision, as “the consequences for UK sport and UK sports fans are too serious and fundamental for us to ignore.” Yeah, right. Pull the other one, it’s got bells on.

The reality is that TV channels are not immune from the recession, as we saw when ITV Digital and Setanta went bankrupt. Although the latter’s collapse has in itself not proved problematic, as ESPN snapped up the TV rights relinquished by Setanta, if Sky were to hit financial difficulties this would be extremely serious for the Premier League and by extension the clubs. This may not seem likely, but it is not out of the realms of possibility. For example, Mediapro, the company that owns the TV rights in Spain for La Liga, applied for bankruptcy protection last year.

Although the Premier League is the current undisputed “heavyweight champion of the world” in terms of global popularity, that could change if more of football’s top stars decide to move to another league like La Liga, e.g. Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid, as the “product” would then be devalued. It’s also true that to a certain extent the Premier League have had it easy so far selling its content overseas and it’s only a matter of time before the other leagues pull their fingers out and provide some meaningful competition.

"Goodbye Premier League, hello La Liga"

Perhaps the most intriguing question is how the Premier League reacts to new technology, which could be both an opportunity and a threat for the leading clubs. To date, it has responded in the traditional old economy manner by employing a company to protect its rights online and issuing lawsuits against those that provide illegal streams on the internet.

However, the emergence of fast, broadband networks might just be the catalyst for clubs to interact directly with fans. Although ventures like MUTV and Arsenal TV Online have hardly set the world alight, it is clear that foreign owners can see huge potential in online services, hence Stan Kroenke’s purchase of a 50% share in Arsenal Broadband (more than his 29.9% stake in the club). To give an idea of the size of the prize, the value of the New York Yankees’ official cable network is three times as high as the club itself.

Just because television is the medium of choice now does not mean that this will always be the case (“Video killed the radio star”) and there may well be a paradigm shift in the future in how fans watch football and how clubs generate broadcasting revenue. In the long-term, you can envisage a scenario where clubs heavily discount tickets to encourage fans to attend, as they provide much of the atmosphere and excitement that makes the Premier League such an appealing spectacle. One day they might even “invert the pyramid” and pay fans to attend…

3. Commercial

Back in today’s hard-hearted world, commercial revenue had been declining in the Premier League, but it rose an impressive 13% for our six clubs last season, though the performance was very much a mixed bag. Most of the growth came from Manchester City, whose commercial income grew a staggering 159% from £18 million to £47 million, thanks to a raft of amicable agreements with companies based in the Middle East. Manchester United have also been no slouches in the commercial arena, as their new territory specific approach delivered many new secondary partners like Turkish Airlines, Betfair, DHL, Thomas Cook, Singha and Epson. On the other hand, commercial revenue fell at both Arsenal and Liverpool.

Even with these improvements, there is still a lot of scope for growth if you compare how much revenue German clubs generate. Although this is facilitated by advertisers loving the German combination of high crowds and easily accessible televised games, it still seems strange that Schalke 04 can earn more commercial revenue (£66 million) than all but one English club. Even the £81 million generated by a fabulous franchise like Manchester United pales into insignificance relative to the £144 million produced by Bayern Munich.

That said, the leading English clubs have all managed to increase their shirt sponsorship in 2010/11, some of them significantly: Liverpool’s deal with Standard Chartered is £12.5m more than the £7.5m paid by Carlsberg; Manchester United’s deal with Aon is £6m better than the £14m from AIG; Chelsea have negotiated a £4 million increase in their Samsung deal to £14 million; while Tottenham have adopted an innovative arrangement of different shirt sponsors for league (Autonomy) and cup competitions (Investec), worth a combined £12.5 million compared to the previous £8.5 million with Mansion. In fact, the total shirt sponsorship revenue in the Premier League has now overtaken the Bundesliga.

In the same way, clubs are still managing to increase revenue from their deals with kit suppliers. There was another contractual step-up in Manchester United’s amazing Nike deal to £25 million, while Chelsea signed an eight-year extension of their deal with Adidas, which greatly increased the annual payment by £8 million from £12 million to £20 million.

Although “the boom in European football merchandising is ongoing”, according to Dr. Peter Rohlmann of PR Marketing, only two Premier League clubs make the list of top ten clubs in terms of revenue with Liverpool third and Manchester United sixth in a report compiled by Sport + Markt. However, their figures have been questioned by United, who claim that the analysis is based only on sales made at the stadium. Such figures are always debatable, as they are not always prepared on a comparable basis, e.g. if retail operations are outsourced, a club will only include a royalty payment in revenue. Nevertheless, what can be said with some confidence is that it is only really the less established leagues that can look forward to significant growth here.

The holy grail for commercial revenue seems to be selling stadium naming rights, but this has proved easier said than done for most clubs. While Chelsea have often spoken about hoping to secure £10 million per annum, the only team in our six clubs that has actually sealed a deal is Arsenal – and they needed to move to a new stadium to achieve this.

Furthermore, in order to gain funding for the stadium construction, the deal with Emirates is not particularly good (£90 million for 15 years up to 2020/21, including the shirt sponsorship until 2013/14), which has held back the club’s commercial income. Arsenal have invested in an expensive new commercial team, so we shall see whether they can deliver any growth in the short-term. As chief commercial officer Tom Fox said, “Ultimately a club is worth what it monetizes.”

That said, commercial revenue is impacted by a number of external factors: the economic climate, number of home games (merchandising and catering) and progress in cup competitions, due to performance-related clauses in sponsorship agreements.

Nevertheless, the flood of new foreign owners in the Premier League clearly believes that there is gold in them there hills. As an example, John W. Henry, whose New England Sports Ventures bought Liverpool a few months ago, spoke of the club’s global revenue potential, when outlining his team’s plans to transform the Reds’ finances, as he did with the Boston Red Sox. NESV clearly hope to use their baseball experience to generate more commercial revenue from global sources.

One other “revenue” stream for football clubs is the profit made on player sales, which you might think would be negligible for the leading clubs, but has brought in a lot of cash for Manchester United and Arsenal, who averaged £39 million and £29 million respectively over the last three years. Indeed, the main reason for the drop in Arsenal’s interim profits was the lack of player sales. Some top clubs on the continents actively use player sales as part of their business model, two obvious examples being Lyon and Porto.

"My profit on sale was how much?"

So why is revenue growth important? We can look at that from two very different perspectives.

First, English clubs need strong revenues to compete with their European rivals when trying to attract world-class players, both in terms of transfer fees and wages. This is the virtuous circle often referenced by Richard Scudamore, “The continued investment in playing talent and facilities made by the clubs is largely down to the revenue generated through the sale of our broadcast rights.” OK, he’s talking specifically about television revenue here, but the general point remains valid.

Whether this is desirable is another question, as the wages to turnover ratio is nearing a critical 70% in the Premier League. Each time that the clubs’ revenue substantially increases, usually through a more lucrative broadcasting deal, the clubs simply pass the additional funds straight into the players’ bank accounts. According to a report recently published by UEFA, although top-flight clubs across 53 countries increased their revenue by 4.8% to €11.7 billion, costs rose by nearly twice that at 9.3%, resulting in total losses of €1.2bn – more than twice the previous record.

The advent of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play regulations, which will force clubs to balance their books without relying on a benefactor’s generosity, mean that the ability of clubs to generate more revenue from football operations will become critically important. As John Henry said on his arrival at Liverpool, “With the financial fair play rules, it is really going to be revenue that drives how good you club can be in the future.”

"Richard Scudamore - nothing wrong with the Premier League"

Given their stellar showing in the Deloitte Money League, this would appear to place England’s leading clubs at a considerable advantage. Certainly, the Premier League’s “see no evil, hear no evil” chief executive, Richard Scudamore, remains confident, “People said we were a bubble going to burst. They said it eight years ago, six years ago, four years ago. From all the indicators we've got, we don't think interest is lessening.”

That is clearly the case right now, though as an industry football is very fortunate that it has such loyal “customers”. The reality is that people love football and will spend considerable sums to follow their team, be that through attending matches, watching them on television or buying the club’s merchandise – even when they disapprove of the club’s owners, as we have seen at Manchester United.

However, a few signs are emerging that the clubs will have to work harder to earn their revenue growth, become more commercial, if you will, rather than simply rely on the three-year cycle of television rights delivering ever-increasing sums of money. The time is fast approaching when they will need to seek alternatives. At that point, we shall see whether football clubs do indeed have the skills to pay the bills.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

When Will The Premier League Bubble Burst?


So England have crashed out of the World Cup, the so-called “golden generation” once again failing to perform on the grand stage. Although England might have found a little form when beating Slovenia, it’s fair to say that the national team has been struggling for almost the entire length of its miserable stay in South Africa with the woeful display against Algeria being one of the worst in living memory and the defeat against Germany the worst-ever at the World Cup.

Never mind, at least English fans can comfort themselves with the thought that they will soon be watching the Premier League again – and that’s the “best league in the world” (copyright Sky Sports’ imbecilic front man Richard Keys). Or is it?

While this is a debate that can never be won on football grounds, it should be rather more straightforward from a financial perspective and, happily for us, the Deloitte Annual Review of Football Finance provides the comparatives. Even though Germany’s Bundesliga is now more profitable than the Premier League with operating profits of €172 million against €93 million, this is partly due to Sterling’s deterioration against the Euro. Moreover, the combined revenue of the clubs in the Premier League of €2,326 million is still miles higher than all other football leagues: Bundesliga €1,575 million, La Liga €1,501 million and Serie A €1,494 million.

"The lion-hearted Premier League"

Despite these apparent riches, there is a growing feeling that the good times in the Premier League are coming to an end. The concern is that football is not immune to market forces, where every boom market is inevitably followed by a bust. However, despite operating in the harshest economic climate, the Premier League bubble defiantly refuses to burst. The reason that football has not been as badly affected as other industries is down to its enduring appeal. The reality is that people love football and will spend considerable sums to follow their team, be that through attending matches, watching them on television or buying the club’s merchandise. Live football continues to attract large audiences on television and this is especially true of Premier League football, whose frenetic style appeals in this media age of low attention span.

The Premier League’s business model is simple, but highly effective. According to their own annual report, they aim to “monetise the global interest in the Premier League and distribute revenue equitably and responsibly”, which essentially means exploiting their broadcasting rights. In order to achieve this aim, the 20 member clubs formed a company called The Football Association Premier League Limited, so when we talk about Premier League financials we have to be careful to distinguish between the clubs’ aggregate revenue (the Deloitte analysis above) and the revenue of the Premier League company, which excludes streams like match day revenue, clubs’ commercial revenue and TV money from the Champions League.

Looking at the accounts of the FA Premier League Limited, there is no sign of the gravy train slowing down. Far from it, as the company’s turnover exceeded £1 billion for the first time in its 17-season history. The 2009 accounts cover the second year of a three-year cycle of broadcasting and other commercial rights and the 6% rise in income is in line with the underlying agreements. Indeed, the turnover has grown by a very impressive 70% in the last four years, which has helped drive the Premier League’s winning cycle: revenue growth, recruitment of the best players (though La Liga might take exception to that), top quality football and further revenue growth.

Of course, one thing, and one thing alone, has driven the Premier League’s success: television - or, more specifically, television money. You might almost say that the Sky’s the limit. Right off the bat, television played a significant role in the Premier League, as money from TV rights was behind its creation in 1992 when the top clubs broke away from the Football League and it continues to be the driving force in its growth (and priorities). Broadcasting revenue is now the biggest element of revenue at Premier League clubs, contributing almost half of their turnover (49%). This is much needed when you consider that match day revenue growth has effectively stalled (up only 2% in 2009), while commercial revenue is also starting to feel the effects of the recession and actually fell 1% last year.

The Premier League’s chief executive, Richard Scudamore, emphasised television’s importance, “The continued investment in playing talent and facilities made by the clubs is largely down to the revenue generated through the sale of our broadcast rights.” There’s that virtuous circle again, even though the figures show that most of that lovely TV money actually goes straight into the players’ bank accounts.

OK, Scudamore might be an arrogant blowhard, but boy does he know how to secure a great TV rights deal. The growth in payments secured for the Premier League TV rights has been nothing short of astonishing from the initial £304 million 5-year deal in 1992 to the £3.6 billion total payments (according to Deloitte) that commence next season. To make that spectacular progress even clearer: on a season basis, the original deal was worth £60 million, while the latest brings in £1.2 billion.

Even when the European Commission tried to loosen Sky’s grip in 2006, the Premier League still managed to secure a 67% increase in the domestic deal to £1.7 billion. And recently, in the midst of the worst recession for decades, the latest deal still produced a 5% increase to £1.8 billion, though this may be due to Sky outbidding Setanta in a desire to put them in their place, ensuring they were only allocated one package, which effectively drove them out of business.

This really is an impressive performance for the Premier League’s wheeler-dealers, but there is a growing awareness that the home market is nearing saturation, hence the mounting focus on overseas rights.

If you think that the increase in the price paid for domestic rights is striking, get a load of the growth in the overseas market. Every time the rights are re-negotiated, the fees more or less double with the latest agreement generating £1.4 billion compared to £625 million in the previous three-year cycle and £325 million the time before that. That deserves some kind of award and Her Majesty duly obliged by giving the Premier League the Queen’s Award for Enterprise.

"Scudamore - I have in my hand a piece of paper"

In fact, the extraordinary globalisation of the Premier League could make English football the first world sport to earn more money from supporters abroad than at home. Foreign rights already account for 44% of the total and it would be no surprise if they overtook domestic rights in the future. Scudamore boasted, “By focusing on the quality of the game, their players and their grounds, the clubs have produced a competition that people want to watch – both at matches and at home.” You can say that again: the Premier League is currently broadcast over 211 territories to more than 500 million homes. As Scudamore says, “Ask people anywhere in the world what they know about Britain and they’ll name the Queen, the BBC and Premier League football.” OK, the Scots and the Welsh might quibble about the reference to Britain, but we get the point.

The overseas rights are marketed to a balanced combination of long-term relationships, such as Fox, ESPN, Canal+ and Sky (in Germany and Italy), and an array of new partners. Revenue increases have been remarkable in the Middle East and Asia, where interest has been bolstered by teams taking part in pre-season tours, including the Premier League Asia Trophy, which has been hosted in Malaysia, Thailand, Hong Kong and China.

However, there are a couple of downsides to this expansion overseas. First, it makes it more likely that kick-off times will be changed to suit fans abroad, so we can expect more lunchtime matches that can be screened during the evening in the Far East. It doesn’t just hurt the UK market either, as local football in many countries around the world has suffered, due to fans preferring to watch the Premier League on television.

"Richard Keys - the unacceptable face of television"

In addition to the main TV rights, there are other sources of revenue. The BBC pays £172 million for the right to show highlights on that hoary old stalwart, Match of the Day, while Sky and BT pay £84 million for the “near live” rights (matches broadcast in full, but delayed). There is also some diversified revenue from new media, though in truth the surface has barely been scratched with only a few million received for screening highlights online (Yahoo!, previously Virgin Media) and mobile phones (ESPN, previously Sky).

It is easy to understand why television is important to the Premier League, but why is football good business for television? Intuitively we understand that football attracts viewers, but if you look at Sky’s subscriber figures, it becomes very evident why football is central to their business model. Of the satellite company’s nine million customers, around five million of them pay for the sports package, earning Sky some £2.5 billion a year. On top of that, pubs pay Sky huge sums for licences to show matches, bringing in a total of nearly £3 billion a season. Admittedly, the sports package contains more than just football, but the Premier League is the jewel in the crown, so must be responsible for most of that business. The latest Premier League rights cost Sky £541 million a season, but there is clearly still a lot of profit margin there.

In these days of multimedia with countless entertainment possibilities, television viewing figures are declining across the board, but average audiences for live football matches have remained consistent. This is particularly important for companies struggling to push their brand through traditional advertising, especially in the core market of males aged 18-34. Dominic Coles, the BBC’s director of sports rights and finance, confirmed its worth, “The Premier League is the world’s most successful domestic tournament and their rights are the most significant sports rights in the UK.”

"Remind me again - who's the sponsor?"

This popularity has also helped the Premier League grow its sponsorship revenue. Barclays recently paid £82 million (up from £66 million) to extend their global title sponsor deal for three years with their president, Bob Diamond, claiming that it “provides a cost effective method to market our organisation.” To nobody’s surprise, Richard Scudamore agreed, “The Premier League must be considered one of sport’s top sponsorship properties. Its great strength is that it is an essentially English competition which has gained a huge international following.”

Partners such as Nike, Budweiser, Lucozade Sport and Wrigleys further highlight the competition’s marketing appeal. Sponsorship has come a long way since the Premier League’s inception. There was no sponsor at all in the first season and Carling paid just £3 million a season for the period 1993-97. This makes perfect commercial sense to any organisation. As experienced football agent Jon Smith explained, “If you are a serious brand player, it’s the only thing on the planet that gives you a quarter of the world’s population every week.”

So the Premier League continues to coin it from selling rights, but it essentially distributes all the money it generates, meaning that it retains no profit. The vast majority of this distribution is given to the Premier League clubs. Half of the money from domestic rights is split equally between the 20 clubs; 25% is paid in facility fees, based on how often a club is shown on TV (with each club guaranteed a minimum of ten appearances, maximum of 24); and 25% is paid in merit payments, determined by the club’s final league position. In addition, each club receives an equal share of overseas rights.

For the last season 2009/10, £905 million of central funds were distributed, including £74 million of parachute payments to those clubs relegated to the Championship. Each club got equal shares of £14.6 million from UK TV income and £10.1 million from overseas TV income. Manchester United ended up receiving more money (£53 million) than the Premier League winners Chelsea (£52.8 million), as they were shown on television more often, so received the highest facility fees (£13.0 million), while Chelsea obviously got the highest merit payment of £16 million, compared to bottom club Portsmouth’s £0.8 million. In fact, each place in the league is worth and additional £800,000, so mid-table teams do have something to play for at the end of the season.

This all means that the top earning club (Manchester United) received £53 million, while the bottom earning club Portsmouth still received a very healthy £31.8 million. The Premier League make great play of the fact that their distribution formula is the most equitable of all Europe’s major football leagues, due to the collective selling of the rights, citing the ratio between bottom and top clubs of just 1:1.67. This is considerably lower than La Liga’s 1:14, as TV rights are sold on an individual basis in Spain.

In particular, the Premier League suggests that equal allocation of the growing overseas rights will make the tournament more competitive. However, others disagree, arguing that this merely begs the question of whether this egalitarian approach should not also apply to the domestic rights. The current UK system is weighted in favour of clubs whose games are broadcast live more often, which naturally means the bigger clubs. This gap is widened further when Champions League television money is taken into consideration, so in 2008/09 Manchester United earned a total of £84.1 million, nearly three times Portsmouth’s money. The financials also explain why clubs don’t really take the FA Cup seriously these days, as the winners only receive a paltry £3.8 million.

On the other hand, clubs with a major global fan base like Manchester United and Liverpool might start agitating for a higher share of the overseas rights, as it is difficult to see how much interest a match between, say, Burnley and Bolton Wanderers would hold in Asia. So far, everyone has followed the party line. As Scudamore said, with more than a hint of complacency, “So long as the overall amount is going up, we don’t get too many complaints.” Not so much the beautiful game as the bountiful game then.

Indeed, the central payments will rise again next year by about a third, as the new TV deals take effect, which means that even the club finishing last will receive an incredible £40 million. No wonder clubs stretch themselves to the financial limit to get into the Premier League, as the size of the prize is so enormous. In fact, the winners of the Championship play-off final should gain at least £95 million, even if they are immediately relegated the following season. First, £40 million for coming last, then £48 million parachute payments spread over four years (£16 million in each of the first two years and £8 million in years three and four) plus at least £7 million additional income from ticket sales, sponsorship deals and other commercial earnings.

"Good times"

To be fair, the Premier League also distributes a fair bit of money down through the football pyramid, including £43 million allocated to grass-roots facilities (Professional Footballer’s Association £17 million, Football Foundation £15 million, Creating Chances programme £8 million, Professional Game Match Officials £2.5 million and League Managers’ Association £0.5 million) and £18 million for developmental support to the Football League, though this only represents 6% of turnover.

In contrast, the Premier League should be praised for their very low administrative expenses, which represent less than 1.5% of turnover, but even here I cannot help noticing that the highest paid director, presumably Scudamore, has not done too badly, receiving over £1.5 million last year, including a £750,000 bonus in respect of broadcasting agreements.

As we have seen, one of the largest “external” payments made by the Premier League is for the parachute payments to those clubs relegated to the Football League, amounting to £74 million. The rationale for these payments is to soften the financial impact of relegation, when the clubs’ television money drastically reduces, on the assumption that the clubs cannot immediately reduce their operating expenses. France’s Ligue 1 is the only other league with such a system and it does seem strange, as it essentially rewards failure and potentially distorts competition in the Championship. If the Premier League is so concerned about the viability of clubs in the lower divisions, why not give the money directly to the Football League instead of the clubs? It smacks a little of “once you’re in our club, we will do everything we can to keep you in (and the others out).”

"Everybody's happy nowadays - not"

However, not everything is rosy in the Premier League’s garden and there are flaws in the business model. Even Deloitte has dared to bite the hand that feeds and pointed out the “imbalance between revenue and costs”. In fact, 14 of the 20 clubs in the Premier League are running at a loss and combined operating profits fell to £79 million last year, the lowest since 2000, mainly due to rampant wage inflation with the crucial wages to turnover increasing to 67% - a record high. Despite the booming television revenue, the combined net debt has also climbed to an unwanted record of £3.3 billion. It’s as if clubs have treated the TV money as some sort of interest-free loan. The other worrying factor is that attendances have fallen two seasons in a row, even though grounds are still more than 90% full.

As a result, there are those who believe that the Premier League should play a stronger role in the sphere of financial sustainability, especially after the high-profile going concern issues at the likes of Portsmouth, Hull City and Liverpool, but Richard Scudamore has distanced himself from these problems (“see no evil, hear no evil”). Actually, when you consider the enormous guaranteed sums, he does have a point, “Given the amount of central income that is generated by the Premier League, it would be down to absolutely rank bad management if a club was actually to go into administration.”

"Happy days"

Nevertheless, the Premier League has not completely stuck its head in the sand and launched a strategic review of its business model back in November 2008, though it will only provide recommendations in December 2010, which may just be “more of the same”. Proposals to date include the infamous 39th game, which would have meant ten additional games played around the world, but this was soon shot down as a blatant money-making attempt, which would have destroyed the competition’s integrity and denied local supporters the possibility of seeing the game live (at least at the stadium).

Next up was the idea of introducing a play-off for England’s fourth Champions League place, featuring the teams finishing in fourth to seventh positions. Although you could argue that this would increase the chances of a team outside the “Sky Four” qualifying for the Champions League, this has again been put on the back-burner, mainly due to the fixture congestion that would arise, but also because it might “damage the product”, the last from David Gold, West Ham’s joint chairman (and full-time rent-a-quote).

Finally, another chairman, Bolton’s Phil Gartside, proposed a two-tier Premier League structure, consisting of 18 clubs in each, in an attempt to protect his club from relegation, sorry, to increase competition, but this has also been parked to one side. In any case, you could argue that the increased parachute payments are effectively creating this format by stealth. Big Phil’s other great idea of inviting Scotland’s Celtic and Rangers to join a reformed Premier League has been flatly rejected.

"Any more bright ideas, Phil?"

Does this flurry of initiatives to increase money mean that there are threats to the Premier League’s dominance? Oh, yes. I can think of at least four:

(a) Customers. TV channels are not immune from the recession and Setanta went bankrupt last year. Although this in itself has not proved problematic, as ESPN snapped up the TV rights relinquished by Setanta, if Sky were to hit financial difficulties this would be extremely serious. This may not seem likely, but it is not out of the realms of possibility. For example, Mediapro, the company that owns the TV rights in Spain for La Liga, last week applied for bankruptcy protection.

(b) Competition. Although the Premier League is the undisputed leader in terms of global popularity, that could change if more of football’s top stars decide to move to another league like La Liga, e.g. Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid, when the “product” would be devalued. There is some evidence that fans in emerging markets attach themselves more to individual players than teams.

(c) Regulatory. Media watchdog Ofcom has already ordered Sky, the Premier League’s main television partner, to give rival broadcasters cheaper access to its exclusive rights (maybe by up to a third), which may in turn lead to Sky paying lower prices for those rights. Although one Premier League insider initially dismissed the ruling, “It’s true that sport has benefited from Sky’s investment, but we are not shy of taking other people’s money either”, this has serious implications for their business model, which is why they have decided to take legal action in order to overturn Ofcom’s decision. Did you get that? The Premier League, not Sky, is launching proceedings – they truly are “partners in crime”. As usual, they dressed this up as a noble gesture, “the consequences for UK sport and UK sports fans are too serious and fundamental for us to ignore”, but their motives are fairly transparent.

"Not even Des could save Setanta"

(d) Technology. Illegal streams of football matches have become very widespread on the internet, so much so that a report compiled for sports rights owners last year concluded that “digital piracy is one of the most important threats today.” However, instead of thinking outside the box (in both senses of the word) and embracing the new technology, the Premier League has responded to this danger in the same way as the music industry – by employing a company to protect their rights online and issuing lawsuits. Broadband is not yet universally available and the quality of the streams is patchy, but younger fans’ viewing habits are definitely changing, so the Premier League should adopt a more progressive attitude to this profound change, instead of throwing all its eggs into television’s basket.

So what would happen if the TV money were to fall? Obviously the funds distributed to Premier League clubs would also be reduced, which would impact all teams, but those at the lower end of the league table would suffer the most, as a far larger proportion of their total revenue is dependent on broadcasting income, e.g. Blackburn Rovers “earn” 70% of their revenue from TV, compared to only 35% at Manchester United.

Deprived of this easy money, clubs would have to cut their coat with the cloth available, i.e. reduce their costs. In practice, this means lowering wages, which seems unthinkable given current behaviour, but could be achieved if all clubs acted collectively (as they do on securing the TV rights). The Bundesliga chief executive, Christian Seifert, has argued, “The Bundesliga pays less then 50% of turnover in players' wages. I'm absolutely sure a league can reduce wages. If all the clubs said: 'OK, we reduce wages by 10%,' maybe you will have some players who would leave for Spain or Italy, but 99% will say: 'OK, still I make a hell of a lot of money’” Indeed, Football League Two has already demonstrated that this is possible in England by implementing a wage cap.

"Sky - even better in 3D"

Unfortunately, the other possibility is that clubs would strive to compensate any TV shortfall by increasing their revenue in other areas, which could mean asking fans to pay higher ticket prices. Alternatively, they could pull their finger out in the commercial area and build their revenues to the same level as their continental counterparts.

The Premier League’s chief executive, Richard Scudamore, remains supremely unbothered, “People said we were a bubble going to burst. They said it eight years ago, six years ago, four years ago. From all the indicators we've got, we don't think interest is lessening.” That may well be true, but the alarm bells are ringing and, as the song says, there may be trouble ahead.