Showing posts with label UEFA Financial Fair Play. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UEFA Financial Fair Play. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Manchester City's Amazing Deal: Know Your Rights


When Manchester City announced that their commercial agreement with existing shirt sponsor Etihad Airways was to be expanded into a 10-year deal worth up to £400 million, the reaction of most observers in the football world was one of disbelief. This hugely lucrative contract includes the renaming of the City of Manchester Stadium in a naming rights deal that is likely to be the highest ever signed in football.

Indeed, Garry Cook, City’s ebullient chief executive, described it as “one of the most important arrangements in the history of world football”, while the CEO of Etihad Airways, James Hogan, was even more effusive, employing the full range of business buzzwords, “This is a game changing partnership agreement that redefines the traditional sports sponsorship paradigm.”

Of course, many people immediately assumed that one of the principal drivers of this deal was City’s need to boost their revenue in order to cope with the imminent arrival of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations that compel clubs to live within their means (if they wish to compete in Europe). This was tacitly confirmed by Cook, when he admitted, “The backdrop, of course, is UEFA’s Financial Fair Play and this deal helps (us) to continue to make significant progress in that area.”

Exactly how much is impossible for external analysts to say, as City have yet to publish the financial aspects of the deal. Initially, most newspapers suggested that it was worth £100-150 million, but now seem to have settled on £300 million, rising to £400 million. The truth is that nobody outside the club really seems to know for sure. Indeed, City released a statement to this effect, “The financial details of the comprehensive agreement announced last week between Manchester City and Etihad Airways remain confidential and figures being speculated about are not accurate.”

"Cooking up a good story"

The lack of certainty over the value of the sponsorship has not prevented prominent figures at other clubs from criticising the deal. The first to express his doubts was Arsenal manager, Arsène Wenger, who has often lambasted the practice of “financial doping” in the past, “It raises a real question about the credibility of the financial fair play. That is what this is all about. They give us the message that they can get around it by doing what they want.”

Liverpool’s new owner, John W. Henry, quickly followed suit, when he claimed that “Mr. Wenger says boldly what everyone thinks.” The Reds’ managing director Ian Ayre was unsurprisingly of the same opinion, questioning the transparency of the arrangement, given the close relationship between the sponsors and City’s owner, “The guys from UEFA said there would be a robust and proper process about related pay transactions.”

Wenger agreed, “It looks to me that Platini is very strongly determined on this. He is not stupid. He knows that some clubs will try to get around that and I believe they are studying behind closed doors, how they can really strongly check it.”

Certainly, UEFA talked tough last year, when Andrea Traverso, their head of club licensing and financial fair play, described what would happen if clubs attempted to beat the system by taking advantage of loopholes, “Should the clubs put in place specific structures that allow them, in ways we didn't think about, to easily get around some of the principles, we could amend these rules to catch up with these situations.”

"Michel Platini: this is how FFP will work"

UEFA President, Michel Platini, ostensibly substantiated the concerns of City supporters that he was targeting their club when he specifically mentioned them last year during the announcement of the new financial measures, “Manchester City can spend £300 million if they want to, but if they are not breaking-even in three years, they cannot play in European competition.”

However, Garry Cook did not appear overly concerned, “We have a very open dialogue with UEFA. We have had several meetings with them and they are very supportive of our plans.”

Indeed, UEFA’s response to City’s mega deal was far more measured than a year ago, “We are aware of the situation and our experts will make assessments of fair value of any sponsorship deals using benchmarks.” So, City are no longer being singled out, at least publicly, with UEFA keen to stress that they will investigate all major sponsorships whatever the club, which “will then be considered by the Club Financial Control Panel, together with any relevant information the clubs present regarding the deals, when they assess the break-even requirements.”

So how will UEFA assess City’s deal?

This is effectively a three-stage process. First, they have to decide whether the deal is a “related party transaction”. If they believe that it is, then they have to estimate the “fair value” of the deal. Finally, if the actual value is higher than the fair value, the difference is deducted from the revenue included in the FFP break-even calculation.

"Every cloud has a Silva lining"

The notion of related party transactions is evidently important to UEFA, as no fewer than three pages of the FFP regulations are dedicated to defining exactly who or what is a related party. The key point here is that “close members of the family” are considered to be related parties, so long as they have “control” or “significant influence” over the club.

In this case, Etihad Airways is owned by the government of Abu Dhabi, whose ruler Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan is the half-brother of City’s owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan. It is conceivable that City might be able to demonstrate that no influence exists, but it would appear that there is a prima facie case to answer.

It is not clear whether the fact that the majority of City’s commercial sponsorships come from the Gulf state, including the Abu Dhabi Tourist Authority, Etisalat and Aabar Investments, will have any bearing on UEFA’s ruling, but Cook himself has admitted that it is “clearly evident” that there is a strong Abu Dhabi bias. Anyway, for the purpose of our analysis, let us assume that UEFA do indeed treat this deal as a related party transaction.

In fact, the FFP regulations expressly include “sale of sponsorship rights by a club to a related party” as their first example of “transactions that require a licensee to demonstrate the estimated fair value.” This has also been verbally confirmed by UEFA’s general secretary, Gianni Infantino, who said that such transactions would be compared to similar deals already in place.

"Fast Kompany"

Again, John W. Henry expressed his scepticism, when he asked, “How much was the losing bid?” Wenger also cast doubts on the value of the deal, “If FFP is to have a chance, the sponsorship has to be at the market price. It cannot be doubled, tripled or quadrupled, because that means it is better we don’t do it and leave everybody free.”

However, Garry Cook argued, “There’s real value in that partnership. Financial Fair Play isn’t the driver, commercial growth is the driver.” That obviously makes sense for City, but how about Etihad? The airline’s executives would contend that this deal has already been superb for their profile, as evidenced by last week’s intense media exposure, and will provide them with a more than acceptable return on their investment.

Not only do City compete at the upper levels of the most viewed league in the world, but their global visibility has been dramatically enhanced by their qualification for the Champions League. Indeed, it is quite possible that the airline gets more bang for its buck with City compared to more established clubs, as the exposure is higher with such a project. Big money deals may be old hat at clubs like Manchester United or Real Madrid, but it’s a relatively new phenomenon at Eastlands, sorry, the Etihad Stadium.

"Nigel de Jong - Dutch courage"

Some have questioned how it could make sense for a loss-making company like Etihad Airways to splash out such a large sum in sponsorships, but that ignores the fact that this investment is all about “building the brand” in the same way as Emirates have done in the past.

At this stage, it’s worth pointing out that the FFP regulations refer to “fair value”, as opposed to the “market value” that is incorrectly used by much of the media. The difference can be seen by an analogy in the housing market. If you decide to sell your house and 99 people offer you £250,000, that would be considered fair value, but if one enormously wealthy individual likes it so much that he bids £500,000, that is the market value.

This is an important distinction, as market value would be easy to prove. Sports lawyer Andrew Nixon of Thomas Eggar LLP asserted, “Competition law challenges rarely succeed on sponsorship deals. There is a vast number of football teams and leagues airlines can sponsor and there are many viable market alternatives.”

Importantly, even if UEFA rules that City’s deal is above fair value, it is only the excess that would be deducted from the club’s income for the purposes of the FFP break-even calculation and not the entire agreement. In other words, if the deal is worth £30 million a year and UEFA consider the fair value to be £25 million, only £5 million would be deducted.

"Don't cry for me, Argentina"

UEFA’s difficulties in assessing the fair value of the deal are compounded by the structure of the deal, which covers far more than the stadium naming rights that were initially reported. This is just one element of a broad agreement that also includes an upgrade of the current shirt sponsorship and naming rights for the Etihad Campus, which encompasses a large part of the Sportcity site in East Manchester.

Furthermore, given the long-term nature of the contract, City could argue that they have built in uplifts, as the sponsorship market might be even more lucrative in ten years time. In addition, part of the money is almost certainly based on performance bonuses, e.g. qualifying for the Champions League or winning the Premier League, which might make it more palatable to the powers that be.

As I said earlier, nobody can honestly claim to know the actual revenue split of the deal, but we can make a reasonable working assumption that the shirt sponsorship is worth £20 million a year, the stadium naming rights £10 million and the campus another £10 million. As we assess each element for fair value, it will become clear why these values have been chosen.

An assumed shirt sponsorship value of £20 million would place City right at the top of English deals, generating the same annual revenue as Liverpool and Manchester United. Those clubs might argue that City’s historical performance should not allow them to be at the same level, but the counter-argument would be that nobody complained about Liverpool increasing their sponsorship deal by £12.5 million a season when they replaced Carlsberg with Standard Chartered last season, even though they had not qualified for the Champions League. Similarly, Tottenham managed to increase their sponsorship by nearly 50% from £8.5 million to £12.5 million (via an innovative combination of Autonomy and Investec), based on just one season in the Champions League.

If the net is cast a little wider, Bayern Munich’s sponsorship deal with Deutsche Telekom is worth around £23 million, though performance bonuses could take that above £25 million. That might seem reasonable for a club with Bayern’s tremendous record, but the value of deals at other German clubs is more debatable, particularly Schalke’s money-spinning deal with Gazprom.

Equally, the announcement of Barcelona’s first ever shirt sponsorship deal with the Qatar Foundation, a non-profit organisation, did not attract the same levels of opprobrium as City’s. This has been widely reported as €150 million over five years, but is actually worth up to €170m, as it also includes €5 million trophy bonuses and €15 million for “the concept of commercial rights”. So, it is likely to be worth €34 million a year (or just under £30 million at the current exchange rate).

"The Italian Job"

Others have pointed disapprovingly at the magnitude of the increase in City’s shirt sponsorship, but they have cited a current value of £2.3 million for the Etihad deal, which looks far too low. Deloitte and other reputable sources have said that this deal is worth £25 million over three seasons, so with uplifts, it’s around £7.5 million as we speak. Other commentators have probably confused this with City’s previous deal with Thomas Cook that was worth £2.3 million.

If UEFA genuinely want to investigate the value that companies obtain from sponsorship, it might be pertinent to ask why they don’t also take a look at Emirates, which sponsors many different clubs. Or indeed the ethicality of clubs being sponsored by gambling sites, which is a growing trend in football marketing.

Probably the most contentious aspect of the deal is the stadium naming rights, which is virtually unprecedented in football at its estimated value. There are very few decent benchmarks in the Premier League with the obvious comparative being Arsenal’s deal with Emirates, which was worth £90 million (£100 million less £10 million fees), covering 15 years of stadium naming rights (£42 million) and 8 years of shirt sponsorship (£48 million).

This works out to just £2.8 million a year for the naming rights, which is considerably lower than City’s deal, but it’s not really a fair comparison for many reasons. Not only have sponsorship values in general grown significantly since the agreement was signed, but also this particular deal is very much a special case, as Arsenal compromised on the total value so that the cash payments would be heavily front-loaded to help finance the construction of the stadium. When questioning the merits of City’s deal, Arsène Wenger drily observed, “We must have done a bad deal”, but there’s more than a grain of truth in that assertion with Emirates admitting that they “did well with Arsenal.”

"Get your Yaya's out"

It’s worthwhile looking at Germany for a more considered view on naming rights, as the market there is more than four times as large as in England, according to Sport + Markt’s 2011 Naming Rights report. Many clubs in the Bundesliga have sponsorship deals for their stadiums, including Borussia Dortmund (Signal Iduna), Hamburg (Imtech), Wolfsburg (Volkswagen), Stuttgart (Mercedes-Benz) and Eintracht Frankfurt (Commerzbank).

However, perhaps the best known is Bayern Munich, whose deal with Allianz is worth €90 million over 15 years, producing €6 million (£5 million) a year. On the face of it, this might suggest that City’s £10 million deal is over-valued at double the money, but this is far closer than the difference in overseas TV rights, which are around 14 times higher in the Premier League than the Bundesliga. Obviously, this is not quite the same thing, but it’s food for thought.

Or UEFA might look even further afield to America, where naming rights are a well-established feature of the sporting landscape. Virtually every major sports arena is now named after a sponsor that provides the club with a healthy source of income. The concept is nothing new under the sun either, as Times Square was named after the New York Times way back in 1903.

Although the link between football and American sports like baseball, NFL and NBA may seem rather tenuous, fundamentally the principle is identical and it seems quite pertinent with the influx of foreign owners into English football. Some of the stadium deals signed on the other side of the pond provide an indication of where this market may go in the future, going as high as $30 million a year paid by JP Morgan Chase for Madison Square Garden. Citigroup and Barclays both pay $20 million a season, the former to the New York Mets, the latter to the New Jersey Nets. Farmers Insurance have paid an astonishing $700 million over 30 years to name a stadium in Los Angeles where a team is not even established yet.

This does rather beg the question of how the sponsor benefits from such a deal: what’s in a name? The obvious answer is brand awareness with a raised profile, which is particularly well served if it is a new stadium. This point was seized upon by Ian Ayre, Liverpool’s managing director, who noted, “It hasn’t happened in Europe that a football club has renamed an existing stadium and it’s had real value.” This is correct, but it’s doubtful whether too many fans are attached to the name Eastlands (or even the City of Manchester Stadium). It would be a different story if this had been Maine Road. This is why it would be difficult to sell naming rights for grounds like Anfield or Old Trafford, as whatever name anybody tried to call the stadium, everyone would still use the old/real one.

One valid point about City’s agreement is that other Premier League clubs have to date been unsuccessful in securing large naming rights deals, though paradoxically this announcement could potentially help others make progress in their discussions. Chelsea have been looking to secure a partner for some time with analysts suggesting that £10 million is the objective, while Liverpool would be equally eager if they move to a new stadium, as Ayre confirmed, “We already have a very healthy dialogue in place with several leading brands regarding naming rights.”

"Hart and Soul"

That said, the Sports + Markt report confirmed that the value of stadium naming rights has been steadily rising, up over 60% from €48 million in 2007 to €78 million in 2010 with the total projected to increase to €87 million in 2011.

Given the difficulties inherent in finding solid comparatives for naming rights, it is possible that UEFA might look at this as just another commercial deal. If they did so, they could not help noticing that the bar is being constantly raised in the commercial sphere, e.g. contracts with kit suppliers. Liverpool’s recent £25 million deal with Warrior Sports is more than double the amount that they previously received from Adidas, helped by the relationship that the new owners enjoyed with the company, which already provides kit for the Boston Red Sox.

Similarly, Manchester United are in discussions to extend their deal with Nike for a record £450 million, which would be worth around £35 million a year, a £10 million increase. If you think that’s impressive, the French national team’s deal with Nike is worth €320 million over 7½ years, which works out to about £37 million a year for just a handful of matches.

In short, commercial opportunities in football are big business these days and City’s deal should be assessed in that light. In a strange way, it brings to mind the movie “The Wizard of Oz” and the famous line about not being “in Kansas anymore.”

With the exception of Manchester United (£81 million), English clubs have lagged their continental counterparts when it comes to making money from commercial opportunities, growing fatter on a diet of ever-increasing TV contracts. Not only do the Spanish giants, Real Madrid and Barcelona, earn substantially more at £124 million and £100 million respectively, but German clubs also consistently generate more income. This description does not just refer to Bayern Munich, who earn an astonishing £142 million commercial revenue a year, but also clubs like Schalke, Hamburg and Dortmund.

There’s certainly room for improvement, which is exactly what English clubs are belatedly doing. In 2010/11, Manchester United’s commercial revenue will exceed £100 million, while Liverpool’s £62 million will ultimately be boosted by £25 million growth from the Standard Chartered and Warrior deals. Likewise, Chelsea will increase their revenue by £12 million from £56 million following better deals with Adidas and Samsung.

In other words, it’s become a commercial arms race with each of the leading clubs significantly increasing their commercial revenue in their own way – and City are no exception.

Actually, I tell a lie, as City’s deal includes one unique element, the Etihad Campus, which is perhaps the cleverest and certainly the most innovative part of the agreement. This is a gigantic redevelopment project on 80 acres of land adjacent to the stadium, including a relocated training ground, youth academy, a sports science facility, office space, a call centre and City Square retail outlets. The academy will be seriously impressive, catering for up to 400 young players, with 16 football pitches, a 7,000 capacity stadium for youth matches and on-site accommodation.

"Opportunities (Let's Make Lots of Money)"

Such a development will not only benefit the community, but will bring a raft of sponsorship opportunities. Nothing like this has been done before, so it will be very difficult for UEFA to assess and almost impossible to deem unfair. In fact, this is exactly the type of expenditure that UEFA is trying to encourage with direct youth and community development costs being totally excluded from the FFP break-even calculation. For someone with pockets as deep as Sheikh Mansour, this is effectively “free” money, at least in terms of FFP.

On top of that, Annex X allows any profits from non-football operations to be included in the calculation, so long as the operations are: (a) based at, or in close proximity to, a club’s stadium and training facilities, such as a hotel, restaurant, conference centre, business premises (for rental), health-care centre, other sports teams; and (b) clearly using the name/brand of a club as part of their operations.

That sounds very familiar, so it’s a double whammy for City: the costs for this development are excluded, while the profits from the business located there are included. Not only that, but UEFA should be positively delighted, as it’s very much in the spirit of the stated objectives of FFP. Given those factors, the temptation must be to load up the sponsorship on this part of the agreement, so the deal split might be more like £10 million on shirt sponsorship, £5 million on naming rights and £25 million on the campus. We shall see.

Even with the benefit of this deal, City are still a long way from break-even, having recorded a thumping great loss of £121 million in 2009/10. The deficit is anticipated to be even higher last season, as the impact of the previous summer’s incoming players will have further increased the wage bill and amortisation. Nevertheless, City insist that matters will improve. Garry Cook stated, “Clearly our intention is to comply. FFP is on our conscience. We talk about it at every board meeting and it’s part of our long-term plan.”

Even the spendthrift manager Roberto Mancini now appears to have accepted the new financial realities, “FFP is for everyone”, saying that City would no longer “pay £10 million more than other clubs” for new players. Indeed, so far this summer, City have only signed Gael Clichy from Arsenal for £7 million and Montenegro defender Stefan Savic for a similar amount. That’s chicken feed by the Blues’ recent standards, though there’s still time for them to splash out on another big name.

That said, City are very keen to reduce their bloated wage bill by offloading players that no longer fit into Mancini’s plans, including the likes of Emmanuel Adebayor, Craig Bellamy, Wayne Bridge and Shay Given. From this season, the club’s revenue will also be significantly boosted by a Champions League campaign and, of course, the vast growth in sponsorship deals.

They will also be helped by the UEFA’s so-called “acceptable deviations”, namely the €45 million aggregate losses allowed in the first two-year monitoring period, which means that they don’t have to actually reach break-even from day one, so long as the owner covers the losses, which I think we can safely assume.

If that wasn’t enough, the glide path is made even easier by clubs being allowed to exclude wages from players signed before June 2010, so long as they are reporting an improving trend in their accounts. Granted, that “loophole” only exists for the first two monitoring periods (2013/14 and 2014/15), but it will buy City time to execute their strategic plan.

In essence, that has been to spend big in the short-term on transfers and wages in order to break into the Premier League top four, so that they can qualify for the riches of the Champions League, which is easily worth £30 million additional revenue a season. That extra income will contribute towards balancing the books while the academy can be established, producing top class players in-house, but the growth in commercial revenue is still a vital component to that strategy.

One of UEFA’s main objectives in implementing FFP was to “curb the excessive spending and inflated transfer fees and player salaries that have endangered football in recent years.” To a certain extent, there are some signs that this is happening, but new regulations often have unintended consequences and it appears that clubs are also striving to increase their revenue, as opposed to simply cutting costs.

Even though City’s revenue grew by an impressive 44% in 2009/10 to £125 million, which pushed them up to 11th place in the Deloitte Money League, this is still a long way behind other leading clubs. For example, it’s less than half of local rivals Manchester United (£286 million) and £100 million lower than Arsenal (£224 million). On the continent, both Real Madrid (£359 million) and Barcelona (£326 million) generate £200 million more than City every season.

City could look to increase their match day revenue, which they have partially addressed via a new agreement with the council, whereby the club pays them a fixed amount regardless of the attendance instead of the previous percentage. Any further growth would mean raising ticket prices, increasing the corporate seats or expanding the capacity of the stadium. The first two moves would be unpopular with fans, while the stadium expansion is longer-term in nature.

Plans exist to increase the capacity of the stadium from 47,000 to at least 60,000, but this would not be entirely straightforward, due to its awkward design. There have been some concerns that City would struggle to fill a larger stadium. Although their attendances have always been good (4th highest in the Premier League), they do not regularly achieve full capacity. That said, the crowds have risen since the move to Eastlands and continued success on the pitch should produce a further increase, as was the case with Chelsea after Abramovich’s arrival.

Television has been the big driver of revenue growth at football clubs and the latest Premier League deal for the three years between 2010/11 and 2012/13 helped increase City’s distribution from £50 million to £56 million. However, this is a tide that floats all boats with very little difference between the leading clubs. The real distinguishing factor is the honey pot known as the Champions League, so City’s qualification will have a transformational impact on their revenue, but it’s a one-step growth.

So, with match day and TV relatively fixed, it’s really down to the commercial side, notably sponsorships, to substantially close the gap with the big boys. Even before the blockbuster Etihad deal was announced, City’s revenue from commercial activities had more than doubled in 2009/10, including an increase of almost 400% in revenue from corporate partnerships up from £6.5 million to £32.4 million.

This explosive growth has inevitably raised suspicions, particularly given the provenance of the sponsors, but the criticism of City has taken on something of the nature of a moral crusade with many commentators accusing the nouveaux riches of buying success, after Sheikh Mansour ploughed close to a £1 billion into the club since acquiring them in 2008. There’s little doubt that City have contributed to the inflation in transfer fees and wages, with net transfer spend of £343 million in the last three seasons and a wages to turnover ratio of 107%, though they are hardly alone in that.

However, there are two sides to every story and there are a couple of facets of this deal that should be commended. From the point of view of the fan, it is surely better that a club tries to grow its revenue by taking more money from sponsors than raising ticket prices. This is where Arsenal’s criticisms ring a little hollow after they hiked ticket prices that were already among the highest by 6.5% for next season.

And while I yield to nobody in my admiration for Sir Bobby Charlton, his suggestion that big clubs should not think about renaming their stadium should also be considered alongside Manchester United’s stratospheric ticket price rises. Indeed, City were top of the ING Direct Value League last season, measured by comparing clubs’ season ticket costs with Premier League performance.

City’s commercial deal will also benefit the local community, which is why the council agreed to let City sell the naming rights of a stadium that is not owned by the club, but the council. In fairness, the club had already contributed £30 million to the stadium conversion costs after the Commonwealth Games, but the council’s willingness to let the deal proceed on these terms still came as a surprise to some.

However, the council will receive £20 million over the next five years, and, more importantly, their leader points to “the regeneration of the area, delivering significant community and economic benefits”, including the creation of new jobs. Faced by severe government cuts, the cash-strapped local authority have gratefully accepted City’s proposal for this deprived neighbourhood, describing it as “great news for Manchester, reinforcing our sporting, transport and economic growth.”

Of course, other clubs have also been very active in their community, but this plan is on an altogether different scale. Yes, it might feel a little like wealthy philanthropists establishing charities as a way of reducing their tax bill, but the fact is that the community will still gain.

This has not stopped other clubs from sniping, led by Bayern Munich chief executive Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, who also happens to be chairman of the European Club Association. When commenting on City’s large financial losses, “Kalle” sniffed, “Maybe they know a trick I don’t that will allow them to take part in the Champions League.” This is the same Bayern where two of their most prominent sponsors, Adidas and Audi, each own around 10% of the club.

Similarly, Wolfsburg is a wholly owned subsidiary of Volkswagen Group, who also pay for the club’s stadium naming rights and shirt sponsorship. Little wonder that Stefan Szymanski, professor of sports business at London’s Cass Business School, said, “If there’s a question of fair value in relation to an Abu Dhabi client sponsoring Manchester City, I see no reason why the same questions can’t be raised about corporate Germany sponsoring German football.”

"Gael force"

If UEFA did decide to broaden their investigations into other sharp practices, they could also take a look at the ridiculously unfair advantage enjoyed by Real Madrid and Barcelona with their huge slice of the Spanish TV pie. And while they’re about it, what about those clubs that directly inflate the transfer market by paying over the odds for average players (naming no names)?

My simple point here is that if you look hard enough, you will surely find reasons to investigate activities at numerous clubs, so it would be very harsh for UEFA to zoom in on City. There will be many such deals sailing close to the edge and there must be a better use of UEFA’s time than to review each one. Adopting a basic tenet of the English legal system, a reasonable man will know when a deal is completely ludicrous, e.g. a £200 million annual season ticket, but to my mind City’s deal does not fall into that category.

While UEFA’s credibility over FFP is at stake, there’s every indication that they will help clubs towards break-even, instead of throwing them out of Europe. Otherwise, in City’s case, it would feel like they should re-release The Clash’s seminal “Know Your Rights” with slightly modified lyrics: “You have the right to sponsors’ money, providing of course you don’t mind a little humiliation, investigation, and, if you cross your fingers, authorisation.”

"Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words"

There may be a whiff of creative accounting around this incredible deal, but there’s also genuine substance and benefit to the community. City’s commercial growth might have been fuelled by money from companies that are at the very least “friendly” towards their owner, but when the deals are broken down the sums are not inordinately high, so are more or less in line with benchmarks.

Furthermore, the proceeds will be invested in a state-of-the-art academy with the objective of producing homegrown young players who will ultimately replace the imported “mercenaries”. It’s a well-considered plan that seems to me to be within both the letter and to a large extent the spirit of FFP.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Chelsea's Financial Fair Play Challenge


“Same as it ever was, same as it ever was” – Talking Heads

Financial analysts could be forgiven for thinking that it was the same old story at Chelsea, as the club once again reported a thumping great annual loss of £71 million, but attempted to put the usual positive spin on the results. In an attempt to prove that he was the right man to replace former chief executive Peter Kenyon, who frequently spoke of the club’s determination to break-even, the new man at the top, Ron Gourlay, claimed, “The reduction in operating losses and increased sales in 2009/10 shows that we are moving in the right direction.”

Up to a point that may be true, but the clever wordplay does not alter the fact that the loss was actually £27 million worse than the previous year. In fairness, Chelsea’s losses had been decreasing in each of the last four years, though everything’s relative and the starting point was English football’s record deficit of £140 million in 2005. As chartists are fond of saying, “The trend is your friend – until the end, when it bends.”

Cynicism reached new highs when it was noted that Chelsea employed the politician’s preferred tactic of choosing a good day to bury bad news, not once, but twice. First, the press release announcing the results, which was amusingly entitled “Chelsea Becomes Cash Positive”, was published on the final day of the January transfer window. Then, the detailed statutory accounts were published at the same time that new signing Fernando Torres was being presented to the press.

"JT - still the main man at Chelsea?"

Moreover, it was faintly ironic that on the same day that the club revealed its £71 million loss, they also announced that they had splashed out a similar sum on acquiring the talents of Fernando Torres from Liverpool (£50 million) and David Luiz from Benfica (£21 million), thus provoking Arsenal manager Arsène Wenger, who has for a long time been a critic of Chelsea’s “financial doping”, to renew his attack on the club’s strategy, “Where’s the logic in that?”

The “Back to the Future” return to the days of big spending appeared to signal a major change of heart from the club’s billionaire owner, Roman Abramovich, whose approach to the club’s finances over the last couple of years has been positively miserly by his previous munificent standards. Chelsea have hugely benefited from the Russian’s largesse in the past, but up until last month he had clamped down on expenditure, reducing the squad size by offloading experienced (expensive) players and cutting back on support staff.

This new era of restraint was rationalised by the impending arrival of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play regulations, which should force clubs to spend only what they earn, especially as Abramovich has often been cited by UEFA President Michel Platini as one of the most enthusiastic supporters of the drive for clubs to be self-sufficient.

On the face of it, Chelsea’s January splurge would seem to fly in the face of Abramovich’s backing for the new rules, particularly as reports indicate that Chelsea also had a £35 million bid for Bayern Munich striker Mario Gomez rejected, though it is not clear whether this would have been on top of the other purchases or was an insurance policy in case the Torres deal fell through.

So, why did the loss increase, especially in a season when Chelsea secured their first League and Cup double? It’s all about the costs, as revenue is virtually unchanged, with wages being the main culprit, increasing by £20 million, though this was partially off-set by last season’s costs including £13 million severance payments to Luiz Felipe Scolari and his assistants. Last year Chelsea made £29 million profit on player sales, ironically mainly due to the transfer of Wayne Bridge and Tal Ben Haim to Manchester City (the “new Chelsea”) and Steve Sidwell to Aston Villa, while this year the sales of Andriy Shevchenko to Dynamo Kiev and Claudio Pizzaro to Werder Bremen generated a loss of £1 million. On the other hand, taking these players off the books helped reduce amortisation by £11 million.

The wage bill has now reached a stratospheric £173 million, the highest ever reported by an English club, which is £40 million more than Manchester City and Manchester United (though it is certain that City’s wages will further increase this year) and £60 million more than Arsenal. The only two clubs with a higher payroll than Chelsea are the Spanish giants, Barcelona and Real Madrid, but their revenue is also considerably higher.

The 13% increase in wages, including a mysterious £8 million rise in pension costs, does not exactly seem to support Gourlay’s previous assertion that “we are reducing our costs by controlling expenses, including salaries and wages.”

Nor does the important wages to turnover ratio, which has worsened from 70% to 82% in the last two years. This is considerably higher than all but one of their rivals for a Champions League place, the exception being Manchester City with a staggering 107%. Indeed, it’s nearly double the ratio at Manchester United and Arsenal. To get back to UEFA’s recommended maximum limit of 70%, Chelsea would have to cut the wage bill by £26 million – or grow revenue by £37 million.

That might seem a steep task, given that there have been few signs of revenue growth in the last couple of seasons. Indeed, turnover has actually fallen by £4 million since 2008, though, as we shall see later there are avenues for Chelsea to grow their revenue in the future, which will help address some of the weaknesses in their current business model.

To be fair, it’s not as if Chelsea’s revenue is too shabby at the moment. In the latest Deloittes Money League, based on 2009/10 results, Chelsea are very handily placed in sixth, which is the same as the previous season’s position. However, to place that into context, Chelsea’s annual turnover of £210 million is still a long way behind Real Madrid (£359 million), Barcelona (£326 million), Manchester United (£286 million) and Bayern Munich (£265 million), though it is within striking distance of Arsenal (£224 million).

Nevertheless, it still came as a major surprise when Abramovich found his cheque book once again. In his first three years at the club, the oligarch’s spending spree amounted to an amazing £300 million (£150 million in the first year alone, when he essentially purchased an entire new team), but the net expenditure was negligible in the following four years. The last big investment occurred back in 2006, including the likes of Ashley Cole, Salomon Kalou and the ultimate vanity purchase, Andriy Shevchenko.

This was very much in line with Kenyon’s assertion that, “We have consistently reduced our net transfer spend over the last five years and will continue this trend”, which was epitomised last summer when the only “big” names to arrive at Stamford Bridge were Yuri Zhirkov, Daniel Sturridge and Ross Turnbull (on a free transfer). Ron Gourlay repeated the need for a hair shirt policy in a team meeting at the start of the season, when he warned the players not to expect any major signings, as the club could no longer rely on handouts from Abramovich.

However, that was then, this is now and Chelsea are clearly back in the market, which can be seen by the turnaround in manager Carlo Ancelotti’s stance in the last 12 months. A year ago, he was very much still on message, “I don’t think it’s necessary for us to spend a lot of money”, but his views this year are in marked contrast, “If you do not have the players, you do not have the possibility to reach the top. Now we have that chance.”

Some commentators have speculated that the reason for Chelsea’s burst of activity is to somehow beat the UEFA Financial Fair Play rules, as the next set of accounts (2010/11) is the last year where the numbers are excluded from UEFA’s break-even calculations, but this merely betrays a lack of accounting knowledge. The reality is that when a player is purchased, his cost is capitalised on the balance sheet and is written-down (amortised) over the length of his contract. Importantly, this means that the cost of Chelsea’s recent purchases will be included under Financial Fair Play via the amortisation charge.

In this way, amortisation can have a big influence on a club’s results. For example, Manchester City’s player amortisation has grown significantly from £6 million in 2007 to £71 million in 2010. On the other hand, the slow-down in Chelsea’s transfer spend has seen their amortisation fall from £83 million to £38 million in the last five years.

Although a few journalists have suggested some accounting trickery, whereby clubs would choose to book all the huge transfer spend now as a cost, so that it would not impact future accounts, this seems extremely unlikely to me. While it is true that UEFA's regulations do allow football clubs to choose "an accounting policy to expense the costs of acquiring a player’s registration rather than capitalise them", the key point is that this must be "permitted under their national accounting practice."

"Josh McEachran - a sign of things to come"

This is highly technical, but in my view this is where their argument falls down. Ever since the introduction of IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards), in particular FRS10 on Goodwill and Intangible Assets, major clubs have used the capitalisation and amortisation method to account for player transfers, so it would be difficult for Chelsea (or anybody else) to argue that the "income and expense" method had suddenly become appropriate.

UEFA have all but confirmed this in a recent statement, when they clarified the issue: “There is no doubt that transfers now will impact on the break-even results of the financial years ending 2012 and 2013 – the first financial years to be assessed under the break-even rule.” This was further underlined by Andrea Traverso, the Head of Club Licensing and Financial Fair Play at UEFA, who explained, “All clubs must amortise all transfer fees.”

I suppose that there is always the possibility of a club booking a massive impairment provision in 2010/11, which would dramatically reduce the value of their players in the accounts, but have the advantage of reducing future expenses. However, this has the whiff of earnings manipulation and is unlikely to be accepted by UEFA.

In fairness, UEFA have given clubs every opportunity to meet the new guidelines with a phased implementation. The first season that they will start monitoring clubs is 2013/14, but this will take into account losses made in the two preceding years, namely 2011/12 and 2012/13, so Chelsea’s accounts need to be in better shape pretty quickly.

However, they don’t need to be absolutely perfect by then, as wealthy owners will be allowed to absorb aggregate losses (so-called “acceptable deviations”) of €45 million (£39 million), initially over two years and then over a three-year monitoring period, as long as they are willing to cover the deficit by making equity contributions. The maximum permitted loss then falls to €30 million (£26 million) from 2015/16 and will be further reduced from 2018/19 (to an unspecified amount). Note that these sums represent aggregate losses, not a yearly loss, as I have seen some people erroneously report.

Even with all these allowances, the majority view seems to be that Chelsea’s recent transfer activity means that they have no chance of reaching break-even in the near future, even though UEFA themselves were at pains to point out, “The financial fair play rules do not prevent clubs from spending money on transfers, but require them to balance their books at the end of the season.”

Indeed, Chelsea remained full of confidence, “The club is in a strong position to meet the challenges of UEFA financial fair play initiatives, which will be relevant to the financial statements to be released in early 2013”, i.e. their 2011/12 accounts. Obviously, many will take that assertion with a large pinch of salt, but, for once, I think that the club’s hierarchy might be right. My analysis indicates that Chelsea might well reach break-even sooner than many would believe.

This is how I think they will do it, starting from their current pre-tax loss of £70 million.

1. Financial Fair Play Adjustments

It is not widely appreciated that UEFA’s break-even calculation is not exactly the same as a club’s statutory accounts, as it excludes certain expenses, including depreciation on tangible fixed assets and expenditure on youth development and community development activities. In Chelsea’s case, this means that £9 million of depreciation can be removed right off the bat.

It is more difficult to assess the youth development expenditure, as this is not separately disclosed in the public accounts, but we can make a reasonable estimate. In an interview with Frank Arnesen, Chelsea’s sporting director, who is due to leave the club at the end of the season, the Independent mentioned “Roman Abramovich’s £60 million plan to build Chelsea through youth development.” On the assumption that this cost refers to the amount spent by Arnesen during his five-year tenure, that would imply an annual budget of £12 million. To be conservative, I’m going to round that down to £10 million.

Fortunately for Chelsea, UEFA still allow clubs to exclude such costs, regardless of whether the programme is successful, as to date the return on investment has not exactly been dazzling. However, there are some signs that it is beginning to deliver, most obviously in the form of skilful midfielder Josh McEachran, but also, to a certain extent, with Patrick van Aanholt, Jeffrey Bruma and Gaël Kakuta. The growing pool of talent resulted in Chelsea winning the FA Youth Cup last season.

Either way, the Fair Play rules allow Chelsea to reduce their expenses by £19 million: £9 million depreciation and £10 million youth development expenditure.

"David Luiz - Sideshow Bob"

2. New Signings

The 2009/10 accounts ran up to 30 June 2010, so do not include the cost of any new signings after that date, which means that we need to add the wages and amortisation for Torres, Luiz, Ramires and Yossi Benayoun. Taking Torres as an example, his wages have been estimated at £150,000 a week, which works out to £8 million a year, while the annual amortisation is £9 million (£50 million transfer fee divided by the 5.5 years of his contract), giving a total of £17 million. Although players’ salaries are not divulged, we can make reasonably accurate estimates for the others, which give us a total of £36 million of additional costs for these four players.

3. Summer 2010 Departures

On the other hand, many high-earning players left last summer, which has taken at least £20 million off the wage bill, though this policy has also caused the club numerous problems on the pitch, as the young, emerging players are not yet ready to fill the boots of Ricardo Carvalho, Michael Ballack, Deco, Joe Cole and Juliano Belletti. A couple of lesser players (Franco Di Santo and Miroslav Stoch) also exited stage left, so my calculations suggest a reduction in wages of £23 million.

Normally, players leaving would also lower amortisation, but these players were either out of contract or only had a small amount of time left, so I have not assumed any reduction for that.

"Carvalho - first of the old guard to leave"

4. Profit on Player Sales

Although many of the players left Stamford Bridge on free transfers, Chelsea did receive money for some players: Carvalho £7 million, Stoch £4.6 million and Di Santo £1 million, giving a total of £13 million. As this year’s accounts included a loss of £1 million on player sales, that means an improvement of £14 million.

5. Reduction in Bonuses

Unless Chelsea repeat their feat from last year of winning the Premier League and FA Cup (or finally triumph in the Champions League), bonus payments should fall. These can significantly influence a football club’s expenses, as we have seen with Barcelona, who were in a financial sense victims of their own success, as they had to shell out around £33 million in bonuses. Furthermore, Chelsea have explicitly stated that they have cut performance bonuses, so there really should be a decrease here. Frankly, I have no idea how much this is worth, but for it to be meaningful enough for the club to mention it, it must be reasonably large. My estimate is £15 million (about 8% of the total remuneration), which does not seem too aggressive a target.

"Wilkins and Ancelotti - say hello, wave goodbye"

Against that, there will be a severance payment for Ray Wilkins, the former assistant manager, who left Chelsea in rather acrimonious circumstances in November. His deal was apparently worth £400,000 a year, but let’s be generous and assume a £1 million pay-off. If Abramovich tires of Ancelotti, there could be an additional “exceptional” payment here, but for the purpose of this exercise we’ll assume that “Carletto” will remain in place for the foreseeable future.

That gives a net payroll improvement of £14 million (£15 million cut in bonuses less £1 million Wilkins payment).

The latest accounts also reveal that Chelsea would be liable for an additional £3.8 million in National Insurance contributions if HM Revenue and Customs are successful in their legal case, where they argue that image rights payments should be taxed as income. As the outcome of that dispute is unclear, we shall ignore it in our workings.

6. Improved Commercial Deals

The signing of Torres will undoubtedly help the club’s commercial image, but Chelsea have already made great strides in what Gourlay described as “leveraging the brand.” In October, they signed an eight-year extension of their kit supplier deal with Adidas, which increased the annual payment by £8 million from £12 million to £20 million. In fact, some reports suggest that the new agreement could be worth as much as £25-30 million, but this is almost certainly linked to on-field success, so I have taken the lower amount.

Similarly, at the end of last season, the club agreed a new deal with shirt sponsor Samsung, which reportedly increased the annual fee by £4 million from £10 million to £14 million. That’s pretty impressive, meaning that Chelsea now have the sixth most lucrative shirt sponsorship deal globally, though it’s still a fair way behind the £20 million earned by domestic rivals Manchester United (Aon) and Liverpool (Standard Chartered). Of course, Barcelona’s £25 million deal with the Qatar Foundation has raised the bar again - even higher than Bayern Munich’s £24 million deal with Deutsche Telekom.

So, in total, there should be a hefty increase of at least £12 million from commercial deals (Adidas £8 million, Samsung £4 million). This is the figure I have used in my plan, even though other new contracts, like the one signed with Singha beer will also have grown commercial income.

Chelsea’s current total of £56 million is £25 million behind Manchester United, but this rash of new deals is closing the gap. They are keen to further exploit their commercial potential, hence they will embark on a tour of Asia next summer in order to tap into emerging markets, but they would need to hugely up their game if they want to get close to Bayern Munich’s astonishing £142 million.

This is, of course, the area where those fans that have not bothered to plough through UEFA’s regulations (and who can blame them?) see an easy way to reach the break-even target. Why doesn’t Abramovich sign a £200 million sponsorship deal? Or pay £50 million a season for a super-VIP executive box? Or buy 10 million shirts emblazoned with “Torres 9”?

"Super Frank"

Unfortunately, that simply is not possible, as UEFA have introduced the concept of “fair value” so beloved of tax authorities when reviewing inter-company transactions. In short, if an owner over-pays for services, this will be adjusted down to market value, i.e. what the club would have received if the transactions were conducted on an “arm’s length” basis. Obviously, there is still some scope for manipulation, especially as market value is notoriously difficult to assess, but the most blatant excesses should be prevented.

7. Stadium Naming Rights

Staying with the commercial arm, there has long been talk of Chelsea selling naming rights for their Stamford Bridge stadium. This is easier said than done, especially as the best marketing opportunity really lies with a move to a brand new stadium, but analysts have spoken of £10 million per annum, which is not beyond the realms of possibility. Indeed, Ben Wells, the club’s head of marketing, has waxed lyrical about looking to Asia for a sponsor, building on the club’s existing relationships in the region.

8. Ticket Prices

Chelsea raised their ticket prices at the beginning of this season. Although this is never going to be a popular move with fans, in fairness, this followed four consecutive seasons of freezing prices and was the first increase since July 2005. After inflation is taken into account, the club claimed that this represented a reduction in real terms of 15% over the period. Some accounts list the increase this year as an average 4%, while others refer to a 10% increase in season ticket prices, so I have again used a conservative assumption of 5%, which would be worth £3 million a year.

The club is limited in its ability to generate more match day revenue, because of the low 42,000 capacity of Stamford Bridge, which is considerably smaller than Old Trafford (76,000) and the Emirates (60,000). To be fair, they do get a lot of bang for their buck (yield per seat), as can be seen by the fact that their match day revenue of £67 million is much higher than Liverpool’s £43 million, even though Anfield’s capacity is actually larger at 45,000. However, they still earn over a £1 million less per match than Manchester United and Arsenal.

Their only realistic hope of matching the £100 million earned by those two clubs would be to move to a larger stadium. Although such a project did appear to have been taken off the agenda, a couple of months ago the idea of moving to a new 60,000 capacity stadium in the nearby Earls Court Exhibition Centre was again floated. Chelsea looked at the same site four years ago, so this is very far from a fait accompli, but the area is not exactly flush with alternatives. As chairman Bruce Buck said, “Certainly we wouldn’t leave West London or thereabouts, and there are very few sites available.” However, there would be many hurdles to overcome, including planning permission, and a new stadium would not be ready until 2015, so this is very much future music.

9. TV – Premier League

In line with other Premier League clubs, the main driver of revenue growth at Chelsea has been television, which is particularly evident in 2007/08, when £17 million of the £23 million increase in turnover was attributable to the new three-year deal with Sky. In the same way, the 2010/11 figures will be given an uplift by the latest three-year agreement, which kicked-off this season. Thanks to the overseas rights more than doubling, this is anticipated to deliver between £7 million and £10 million additional revenue to each club. Given that the actual amount received is partly dependent on the final league position and the number of times the team is broadcast live, I have used the lower figure in my plan.

10. TV – Champions League

In the same way, the distribution of Champions League prize money and TV payouts will also be higher this season. Again, this is dependent on a number of factors, such as how far a team progresses in the competition, how many times they win in the group stage and the share of the market (TV) pool, but an assumption of an additional £5 million is probably not too wide of the mark.

Chelsea’s revenue from UEFA for participating in the Champions League has been worth an average of £27 million in the last three seasons, and that does not include the extra gate receipts (£2.4 million a match) or higher payments from success clauses in commercial deals. All in all, failure to qualify would mean losing £40 million of revenue. No wonder the club’s accounts warn that its income is “dependent on the success of the first team.”

This is probably the main reason why Chelsea bought Torres and Luiz, as for the first time in ages there is a very real risk that they might miss out on Champions League qualification and the money that accompanies that. Simply put, the £71 million will be a price worth paying if it guarantees qualification. Of course, there’s no such guarantee in the unreliable world of football, but this statement of intent should surely help, not least in the boost it will give to the rest of the dressing room.

"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss"

So, adding up all those ups and downs brings us (spookily) to break-even. The key point here is that all of these actions have already happened with the sole exception of the naming rights, so it is little wonder that Chelsea’s officials demonstrated such confidence when announcing their latest loss. Of course, there may be other factors affecting the club’s financials, but remember that the acceptable deviations will give them plenty of room to manoeuvre.

Those of a more Machiavellian nature would no doubt maintain that all of this is unnecessary, as Chelsea could just employ an army of lawyers and accountant to locate the loopholes in UEFA’s regulations, but the figures above suggest that they do not actually need to resort to such subterfuge. In any case, UEFA are not complete fools, as they have addressed some of the more obvious ways of getting around the new regulations.

For example, many clubs these days have an intricate inter-company structure and there were fears that a club might argue that the football club itself was profitable, while large expenses such as interest payments were paid out of a different company. Clearly, that does not make sense to any reasonable man and UEFA have caught that one, “If the licence applicant is controlled by a parent or has control of any subsidiary, then consolidated financial statements must be prepared and submitted to the licensor as if the entities were a single company.”

"Bridge of Sighs"

Another possibility that some have proposed is for a club to sell a player to a “friendly” club at an inflated price, thus producing a large profit on sale. This is more difficult to police, as transfer prices on occasions appear to defy logic, e.g. a few weeks ago not many supporters would have believed that Andy Carroll would have fetched £35 million, but if this were to become a recurring theme at any club, it would be easily identifiable.

Interestingly, it does look as if UEFA are operating a “carrot and stick” approach to implementing the new regulations, as the small print in the last appendix provides a further safety net or, as Traverso described it, “a little bit of a cushion”. Even if a club misses the target, it can escape sanctions if it meets two criteria: the trend of losses is improving; and the over-spend is caused by the wages of players that were contracted before June 2010 (when the fair play rules were approved). However, that flexibility is only available for the reporting period ending in 2012, so effectively only delays the day of judgment by a year.

This begs the question of whether UEFA really would exclude clubs from European competitions. This might work fine on paper, but it might never happen in reality, especially when you consider that some of Europe’s least profitable teams are among those that attract the largest television audiences.

"Michel Platini - it's Hammer time"

Would UEFA really bite the hand that feeds? Yes, if you believe UEFA president Michel Platini, who said earlier this month, “It will have to be time for them to face the music if there is a club that doesn’t fall in line. It is not something I want, but it is something the disciplinary bodies will look at. It will be a last resort. Football will continue without them.” Asked to expand on this, UEFA's general secretary, Gianni Infantino, said, “There may be intermediate measures. We would have to ask why, maybe there would be a warning, but we would bar clubs in breach of the rules from playing in the Champions League or the Europa League. Otherwise, we lose all credibility.”

At this stage, we should probably clear up yet another misconception about the Fair Play regulations. Many seem to believe that if a club has no debt, it should be OK, but that is not the most important issue for UEFA, who are less concerned about clubs taking on debt, but more their ability to service that debt, i.e. pay the annual interest charges. Some thought that this was the reason that Abramovich converted his £726 million of loans into equity (at least in the football club, though not in the holding company, Fordstam Limited), but in reality this makes no difference to UEFA.

That said, there’s no doubt that Chelsea have gained from their owner injecting funds into the club, not just for the obvious reason that it has provided a lot of money, but also because the loans were interest-free. That’s given the Blues a considerable competitive advantage over their main rivals, who have all incurred immense annual interest charges: Manchester United £70 million, Liverpool £40 million and Arsenal £20 million.

"Abramovich - good to be back"

Chelsea’s fortunes have been inextricably linked to those of Abramovich since he started bankrolling the club in 2003. Although he was affected by the global recession, his wealth is still estimated at £7.4 billion by the Sunday Times Rich List, so lack of money is unlikely to be an issue for him. The more pertinent question for Chelsea fans is whether he still retains the same enthusiasm for the club, particularly as he has been involved in Russia’s successful campaign to host the 2018 World Cup. Last month’s venture into the transfer market might well allay supporters’ fears, though the suspicion remains that this could instead be a last throw of the dice in order to win the Champions League in the next two seasons. We shall see, though Abramovich has been true to his word so far.

As mentioned earlier, the club was keen to highlight the fact that it “had become cash positive for the first time since its acquisition by Roman Abramovich”. Chelsea’s chairman, Bruce Buck, re-iterated this point, “That the club was cash generative in the year when we recorded a historic FAPL and FA Cup double is a great encouragement and demonstrates significant progress as regards our financial results.”

Well, yes, but the only reason that the club had a (small) positive cash inflow of £3.8 million in 2009/10, compared to a net outflow of £16.9 million in the previous year, was that there was an £18 million cash inflow from transfers. In every other year of the Abramovich era, the club has had significant cash outflows and has needed to be financed by their owner, either though new loans or subscribing for additional shares.

The situation is unlikely to be any different next season after Chelsea’s large outlay on new players, so it is fair to say that the club has yet to fully wean itself off its owner’s generosity, which is reinforced by the accounts, “The company is reliant on its parent undertaking, Fordstam Limited (effectively Abramovich), for its continued financial support.”

It will be very interesting to see what happens next summer. There is now a distinct possibility that Abramovich will finance further rejuvenation of an ageing squad with exciting names like Anderlecht’s powerful young striker Romelu Lukaku, Lille’s creative midfielder Eden Hazard and Udinese winger Alexis Sanchez being mentioned in dispatches.

"Didier Drogba - on his way?"

Conversely, this may well be compensated by the club moving on a few players, not just those on the fringe of the first team like Paulo Ferreira, John Obi Mikel and Yuri Zhirkov, but also some of the big stars like Florent Malouda and even Didier Drogba. The resale value may be low, given their age, but such actions would have the benefit of slashing the wage bill and reducing amortisation.

If Chelsea do go on a summer spending spree without recouping some of their expenditure, then all bets could be off in terms of Financial Fair Play. However, up until now, it looks to me as if they have been boxing rather more cleverly than many people have assumed. As we have seen, they are indeed well on course to break-even, despite the astonishing expenditure in January, and there is evidently some method in their apparent madness.