In my last NBA post, I said that upsets are very rare in the NBA Playoffs. The Eastern Conference has proved me right so far, with the top four seeds being ahead halfway through their first round series.
However, the Western Conference is upside down right now. The four lower seeds either have a decisive advantage or are ted four games into their series.
Right now, the San Antonio Spurs look like the best team in the NBA, the L.A Lakers are the most disappointing, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are, by far, the most surprising.
How did I come to those conclusions? Let's just take a look at how each series is shaping up and you will see why.
Western Conference: Where Everything is Upside Down .
(1)L.A Lakers 2-(8) Oklahoma City Thunder 2: Edge...OKC/LAL 50%.
Kevin Durant has made the leap from NBA boy to man. In just his third year in the league, Durant has lifted the Thunder from an 0-2 hole against the mighty Lakers with help from point guard Russell Westbrook, who is also having a breakout series. Do I think the Thunder can shock everyone and eliminate the defending champs? I don't think so...but taking the series to seven games would really be something too.
(2) Dallas Mavericks 1-(7) San Antonio Spurs 3: Edge...San Antonio 70%.
Ah...poor Dirk Nowitzki. No matter how hard he tries,it looks like he will never win a championship. The straw that broke the camel's back came on Sunday night, when the Mavs looked primed to even up the series with a 15-point lead earl in the third quarter and shutting down the Spurs' big three (Ginobili, Duncan, Parker). However, the Spurs made an electric run and won the third quarter 29-11 behind backup point guard George Hill's 29 points in the game and backup power forward DeJuan Blair's relentless hustle. That's right Dirk, a guy named DeJuan just beat you..think about that.
(3) Phoenix Suns 2-(6)Portland Trail Blazers 2: Edge...Portland 55%
Both teams split their games at home, and Blazers point guard Brandon Roy came back from an injury that was supposed to keep him out of the playoffs in Game 4 to tie up the series and put some life back on a team that had beer blown out in Game 3. I find absolutely no explanation for Portland hanging around, but Phoenix is going to pay a very high price if they don't put them away soon.
(4) Denver Nuggets 1-(5)Utah Jazz 3: Edge...Utah 85%.
Denver is stumbling, all Utah has to do is deliver its final punch at home to advance to the second round. As far as the Nuggets go, I am not going to judge a team that has its coach bed-ridden and battling throat cancer. George Karl was their compass, and they look lost without him.
I want to see Utah win it all, because Jerry Sloan has been coaching them for 20 years and hasn't been to the Finals since 1998, when he was denied by a certain player called Michael Jordan.
Eastern Conference: Superman vs LeBron..It's on.
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers 3- (8) Chicago Bulls 1: Edge...Cleveland 99%.
What does LeBron James, the best player in the NBA, do on Sunday afternoon on national TV in the game that would decide which way momentum would swing in the series? he just goes for a triple-double and lifts his team to a 121-98 victory that puts the series beyond any reasonable doubt. LeBron looks unstoppable...but there is one team that has the recipe to ruin his championship ambitions once again, just like they did last year...
(2) Orlando Magic 3- (7) Charlotte Bobcats 0: Edge...Orlando 99%.
And that team is the Orlando Magic. This series marked the difference between a team that only wants to be an NBA champion (Orlando) and one that s just giddy to be in its first playoff series in team history (Charlotte).
I think Cleveland has the best player, but Orlando has the best team to get to the NBA Finals and will sweep the Bobcats on Monday.
(3) Atlanta Hawks 2-Milwaukee Bucks 1: Edge...Hawks 55%.
Atlanta looked to be in complete control and primed to sweep the series after the first two games, but Milwaukee revived in Game 3 with a convincing blowout victory. Game 4 is an absolute must-win for the Bucks if they want to have a chance to advance to the second round, while Atlanta has a chance to prove it is a serious contender for the Eastern Conference Finals.
(4) Boston Celtics 3-(5) Miami Heat 1:
Edge...Celtics 95%
I'm leaving that five percent margin because I don't know what Dwayne Wade can do to follow up his amazing 46-point performance in Game 3, single-handedly pulling his team back from elimination by overcoming a six-point deficit in the fourth quarter by making three after three.
No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit in a series in the history of the NBA, and the Heat don't look like a team capable of doing so. Watch out if they win Tuesday in Boston though, because then they would become truly, really dangerous and steal momentum.
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